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Old Jan 10, 2013, 06:17 PM
Yugosf13 Yugosf13 is offline
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In other words, I expect most companies within the medical sector to <a href="***********.jswingstopshop.com/men-shoes-c-2.html">Men jeremy scott wings 2.0</a> remain profitable long after President-Elect Obama leaves the White House. This said, we will monitor progress and make changes to the portfolio if legislation dictates it.
It is possible that some of the highest forecasts are close to 90 days old, meaning that ****ysts have yet to adjust them for the credit crunch.
2009 Earnings Projections
In a monthly column that I write for SFO Magazine's web site, I described the Dow's range as between 8200-9450. We might see some intraday swings slightly outside these numbers, but I think it's a close approximation.
Higher TED spreads imply greater credit risk. Prior to the current credit crunch, the TED spread was 0.11%.
Lowest estimate: $75.20 (+1.6%)
There is also quite a bit of difference in what ****ysts are forecasting. Last night, I calculated projected <a href="***********.jswingstopshop.com/womens-shoes-c-3.html">Women jeremy scott wings 2.0</a> earnings growth for <a href="***********.jswingstopshop.com/">jeremy scott wings 2.0</a> the S 500 based on the lowest, consensus and highest estimates. Here are the results based on a bottom-up calculation.
The bottom-up estimate is calculated by using the individual earnings estimates for each company and then applying an index-weight to it. The lowest estimate uses the lowest profit forecast for each company. The highest estimate uses the highest forecast for each company.
There was a big rally headed into the election, so a sell on the news reaction was not surprising.
During the campaign, President-Elect Obama said that healthcare will be one his top priorities. Since the Focus List presently has a heavy weighting towards the medical sector, I want to address why I'm not concerned.
The 3-month London-Interbank Offered Rate (aka "LIBOR") is down to 2.29% as of Friday morning. At the height of the credit crunch, the rate had reached 4.82%. This rate is used as the basis for many loan terms, including the interest rate on your and my credit cards.
The top-down forecasts, which are consensus estimates made for the S 500 as a whole, show a tighter range.
Though this is a big range, if the Dow can start to see more days with double-digit moves, as opposed to triple-digit moves, then investor confidence would be more fully restored.
Despite all of the volatility, we are still in one big trading range. The post-election pullback occured as the Dow was just above resistance and overbought on a short-term basis.
Consensus estimate: $93.73 (+6.9%)
The Election and the Our Portfolios
Profit forecasts for 2009 continue to be cut in large numbers. For every positive revision , there have been 6 cuts. The ratio is <a href="h***********.jswingstopshop.com/">adidas wings 2.0</a> roughly the same whether the sample group is the S 500 or the larger Zacks Rank universe, which contains about 4400 stocks.
Healthcare will be a major battle. moves towards national health care, much of the existing system could be kept in place. Switzerland has universal coverage AND powerful insurance and pharmaceutical companies.
As I have said previously, these profit forecasts need to be taken with grain of salt. Brokerage ****ysts are doing their best to make educated guesses, but the assumptions used in their models could end up being very wrong. It's not the ****ysts' fault, but rather just current <a href="***********.jswingstopshop.com/">adidas shoes with wings</a> reality.
Highest estimate: $108.00 (+7.5%)
The TED Spread, which is the difference between the LIBOR rate and 3-month treasury bill rates, has also narrowed. Friday's spread of 2% is well below the recent peak of 3.66%.
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